Brexit and Canada
Canada is much in the spotlight these days, being caught up ( like many other countries ,including the UK) in a tariffs storm with the United States, and with Mark Carney, a former Governor of the Bank of England, becoming Prime Minister of Canada in succession to Justin Trudeau and the subsequent calling of a snap General Election in Canada.
Given the UK’s own pre-occupation with US tariffs and with its Growth agenda, it is worthwhile examining the state of the bilateral trade and investment relationship between the UK and Canada.
On 21st February 2025, the UK Department for Business & Trade ( “DBT”) published one of its regular factsheets on UK – Canada trade and investment. The factsheet showed that total trade in goods and services ( exports plus imports) between the two countries was £26.7 billion in the four quarters to the end of Quarter 3 (Q3) 2024, an increase of 6.7% or £1.7 billion in current prices from the four quarters to the end of Q3 2023. Of this £26.7 billion:
- Total UK exports to Canada amounted to £16.4 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2024 ( an increase of 1.8% or £286 million in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q3 2023); and
- Total UK imports from Canada amounted to £10.3 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2024 ( an increase of 15.7% or £1.4 billion in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q3 2023).
According to the DBT factsheet, Canada was the UK’s 16th largest trading partner in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2024, accounting for 1.6% of total UK trade.
The factsheet also showed that , in 2023, the outward stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the UK in Canada was £37.8 billion accounting for 2.0% of the total UK outward FDI stock and that, in the same period, the inward stock of FDI in the UK from Canada was £30.2 billion accounting for 1.5% of the total UK inward FDI stock.
The economic ties between the UK and Canada may well attract greater focus, given the volatility in the rest of the world.
Brexit and EU Enlargement
In April 2025, the pro-EU -leaning think tank, Centre for European Reform, published a paper ( by non-resident associate fellow, Luigi Scazzieri), entitled ” Will EU enlargement create new models for the EU-UK relationship?”.
According to the executive summary to the paper, new developing models for EU enlargement could have an impact on the re-setting of the UK – EU relationship. The summary describes the parameters this way:-
“There are several models for what associate membership of the EU could look like. The most ambitious model could resemble an upgraded version of Norway’s relationship to the EU. Associate countries would be de- facto full members of the single market, including free movement, and have some decision-shaping rights. Unlike Norway, they would also be involved in extensive consultations with the EU, including by attending leaders’ meetings.”
“The least ambitious model for associate membership would entail a much more limited level of integration. Associate members would align with EU law in some sectors only. They would not have decision-shaping mechanisms or implement free movement and consultations at all levels would be less frequent and intense. However, there could still be significant defence co-operation with the EU.”
Food for thought as the UK and the EU explore the possibilities of a “reset” to their relationship!
Brexit and “Mr Brexit”
The weekly edition of “Le Monde” for the week commencing 5th April 2025 contained an article about Reform UK leader, Nigel Farage by columnist, Cecile Ducourtieux, entitled ( as translated into English) “When Mr Brexit dreams about Downing Street “ ( with the strapline “ Carried along by flattering polls, the sovereignty-focused British leader Nigel Farage launched, on 28th March [2025], the local authority [elections] campaign of his party, Reform UK, and believes more and more in his chances of achieving power.”).
According to the “Le Monde” article, Nigel Farage’s programme remains for many “a collection of anathemas or unrealistic propositions” but the article also recognises that France has its own comparable political figures.
The articles ends with a quote from Nigel Farage himself to the effect that Reform UK has had its fair share of turbulences but that the mood of the party in the country remains one of optimism and energy.
We shall see how Nigel Farage’s message shapes out , particularly in the context of the Labour Government’s apparent determination to “reset” the UK’s economic relationship with the EU.
“Le Monde” certainly considers Mr Farage to be of sufficient political significance to devote this whole page profile to him and his party, Reform UK.
Disclaimer: This article contains general commentary only and should not be relied upon as legal advice.