Brexit and China
In view of UK Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer’s well- publicised trip to meet with President Xi in China in late January 2026, and the emphasis that Sir Keir placed there on increasing trade with China, it may be instructive to focus on recent trade and investment statistics between the two countries.
On 2nd February 2026, the UK’s Department for Business & Trade (DBT) published one of its regular factsheets on trade and investment between the UK and China, which showed that total trade in goods and services ( exports plus imports) between the two countries was £102.3 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q3 ( Quarter 3) 2025, a decrease of 0.5% or £488 million in current prices from the four quarters to the end of Q3 2024. Of this £102.3 billion :
- Total UK exports to China amounted to £29.4 billon in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2025 ( a decrease of 11.2 % or £3.7 billion in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q3 2024); and
- Total UK imports from China amounted to £72.9 billion in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2025 ( an increase of 4.6% or £3.2 billion in current prices, compared to the four quarters to the end of Q3 2024).
The DBT factsheet showed that China was the UK’s 5th largest trading partner in the four quarters to the end of Q3 2025 , accounting for 5.4% of total UK trade.
The factsheet also showed that, at the end of 2024, the stock of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from the UK in China was £16.5 billion, 78.9% or £7.3 billion higher than at the end of 2023 , and that at the end of 2024, China accounted for 0.9% of the total UK outward FDI stock.
Finally, according to the factsheet, at the end of 2024, the stock of FDI from China in the UK was £2.5 billion,11.85% or £265 million higher than at the end of 2023 and, at the end of 2024, China accounted for 0.1% of the total UK inward FDI stock.
The UK – China trade and investment relationship is clearly one to watch for the future!
Brexit and the Centre for European Reform
On 3rd February 2026, the Centre for European Reform (CER) published a paper entitled “EU-UK Relations: Will 2026 be the year to reset the Reset?”
The paper concluded with the statement: “The world of 2026 is very different from the world of 2016, when the UK voted for Brexit. Neither the UK nor the EU seems to appreciate the scale of the changes. The UK-US special relationship has been severely damaged , and the rules-based international order has in many respects disintegrated. The EU and UK need a fundamental rethink of how they can enhance their security and prosperity by working together for European strategic autonomy.”
On its website, CER states that it “is a think -tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. We regard European integration as largely beneficial but recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. The CER aims to promote an open, outward-looking and effective European Union.”.
Interesting times!
Brexit and the Right to Vote
On 19th February 2026, The Times published the decision of the European Court of Human Rights (“the Court”) in Hora v United Kingdom ( Application No 1048/20 ) in which it was reportedly held that a bar on the right to vote in the 2019 UK General Election did not breach the rights of a prisoner serving an indeterminate sentence for rape. ( Reportedly, on 9th February 2026, a panel of the Grand Chamber rejected the applicant’s request to refer the case to the Grand Chamber under Article 43 of the European Convention on Human Rights (“ECHR”) ,with the effect that the judgment had become final.)
The Court reportedly held that there had been no breach of the prisoner’s rights when finding, unanimously, that there had been no violation of the right to free elections guaranteed by Article 3 of Protocol No 1 to the ECHR.
The UK Government had previously made administrative changes to its policy on barring prisoners from voting in UK elections so as to comply with the Grand Chamber of the Court’s judgment in Hirst v United Kingdom ( 2005) such as to ensure that there was no blanket ban on prisoners voting in UK General Elections and hence the decision in the “Hora” case.
The ECHR is completely separate from the EU but , given that the ECHR is controversial in the UK in some political quarters, ECHR decisions should be watched in the wider context of UK – Europe relations.
Interesting times in the post-Brexit era!
Brexit and Gibraltar
Gibraltar is in the news!
On 17th February 2026, the European Commission reportedly announced that it had adopted proposals for the signature, provisional application and conclusion of a UK-EU agreement in respect of Gibraltar. These proposals would now be transmitted to the Council of the European Union. This followed the political agreement reached in June 2025 , and finalisation of the full legal text in December 2025.
On 26th February 2026, The Times reported that Spain and the UK “will jointly manage Gibraltar’s airport as part of a treaty that is set to be published today, almost a decade after the Brexit put the future of the territory in limbo”.
According to the report, “The treaty will be ratified by Gibraltar and the UK Parliament. Spain will not put the agreement before the parliament in Madrid, leaving it to be ratified by the European parliament. If the treaty is not rubber-stamped before the April 10 deadline, the agreement may be implemented on a provisional basis.”.
On 27th February 2026, The Times expanded on its report the previous day by confirming that, under the treaty, “Gibraltar will also align aspects of its customs regime with EU standards to eliminate checks at the land border. Import duties will broadly mirror EU rates, allowing residents to carry everyday goods across the frontier without declarations, although the territory will keep its long-standing absence of VAT.”.
Success in the context of Gibraltar could facilitate wider success in the development of UK-EU relations!
Disclaimer: This article contains general commentary only and should not be relied upon as legal advice.
